Changes In Precipitation Regimes Research Articles

Analysis of the impacts of climate change, physiographic factors and land use/cover on the spatiotemporal variability of seasonal daily mean flows in southern Quebec (Canada)

The objective of this study is to compare the spatiotemporal variability of seasonal daily mean flows measured in 17 watersheds, grouped into three homogeneous hydroclimatic regions, during the period 1930–2023 in southern Quebec. With regard to spatial variability, unlike extreme daily flows, seasonal daily mean flows are very poorly correlated with physiographic factors and land use and land cover. In fall, they are not correlated with any physiographic or climatic factor. In winter, they are positively correlated with the rainfall and winter daily mean maximum temperatures. In spring, they are strongly correlated positively with the snowfall but negatively with the spring daily mean maximum temperatures. However, in summer, they are better correlated with forest area and, to a lesser extent, with the rainfall. As for their temporal variability, the application of six different statistical tests revealed a general increase in daily mean flows in winter due to early snowmelt and increased rainfall in fall. In summer, flows decreased significantly in the snowiest hydroclimatic region on the south shore due to the decrease in the snowfall. In spring, no significant change in flows was globally observed in the three hydroclimatic regions despite the decrease in the snowfall due to the increase in the rainfall. In fall, flows increased significantly south of 47°N on both shores due to the increase in the rainfall. This study demonstrates that, unlike extreme flows, the temporal variability of seasonal daily average flows is exclusively influenced by climatic variables in southern Quebec. Due to this influence, seasonal daily mean flows thus appear to be the best indicator for monitoring the impacts of changes in precipitation regimes and seasonal temperatures on river flows in southern Quebec.

Impact of changing climate on bryophyte contributions to terrestrial water, carbon, and nitrogen cycles.

Bryophytes, including the lineages of mosses, liverworts, and hornworts, are the second-largest photoautotroph group on Earth. Recent work across terrestrial ecosystems has highlighted how bryophytes retain and control water, fix substantial amounts of carbon (C), and contribute to nitrogen (N) cycles in forests (boreal, temperate, and tropical), tundra, peatlands, grasslands, and deserts. Understanding how changing climate affects bryophyte contributions to global cycles in different ecosystems is of primary importance. However, because of their small physical size, bryophytes have been largely ignored in research on water, C, and N cycles at global scales. Here, we review the literature on how bryophytes influence global biogeochemical cycles, and we highlight that while some aspects of global change represent critical tipping points for survival, bryophytes may also buffer many ecosystems from change due to their capacity for water, C, and N uptake and storage. However, as the thresholds of resistance of bryophytes to temperature and precipitation regime changes are mostly unknown, it is challenging to predict how long this buffering capacity will remain functional. Furthermore, as ecosystems shift their global distribution in response to changing climate, the size of different bryophyte-influenced biomes will change, resulting in shifts in the magnitude of bryophyte impacts on global ecosystem functions.

Distinct response patterns of soil micro-eukaryotic communities to early-season and late-season precipitation in a semiarid grassland

Semiarid ecosystems are susceptible to changes in precipitation regimes. However, how soil micro-eukaryote communities in semi-arid ecosystems respond to variations in the seasonal distribution of precipitation remains elusive. A 5-year field experiment was performed to investigate the effect of changed precipitation distributions throughout the growing season on soil micro-eukaryotic communities in the temperate steppe. Early-season precipitation did not significantly affect the biomass of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) nor the composition and structure of AMF and protist communities. Late-season precipitation significantly increased the biomass of AMF while significantly altering the relative abundance of dominant genera in AMF and protist communities. There was a clear difference in the community structure of AMF and protists between the late-season precipitation and natural precipitation. In addition, late-season precipitation decreased the amount of consumer protists but enhanced the abundance of parasitic protists. These results indicate that the impact of precipitation limitations in the middle growing season can be weakened by increased precipitation in the early growing seasons, while an increase in precipitation later in the growing season does not improve the impact of a decrease in precipitation in the middle growing season. Our findings highlight the potential impact of intra-annual changes in precipitation in soil micro-eukaryotic communities in arid and semiarid regions.

The high cost of movement in an arid working landscape for an endangered amphibian.

Connectivity is essential for the maintenance of genetic diversity and stability of wildlife populations. Drought and changing precipitation regimes have caused natural aquatic amphibian breeding habitats to disappear or become isolated and have led to the replacement of natural surface water with artificial livestock water tanks. Terrestrial movement is the only means of responding to aquatic threats in arid landscapes and to allow population connectivity. Aridity may present an impenetrable barrier in hydrologically fragmented environments. We used a facultatively paedomorphic and federally endangered salamander to assess the challenges of movement across arid working lands. Sonoran tiger salamanders (Ambystoma mavortium stebbinsi) are endemic to the San Rafael Valley of southeastern Arizona, United States of America, where they depend on livestock water tanks as breeding habitat. The ecology of this species' metamorphs outside of stock tanks is virtually unknown. To assess survival on the landscape during terrestrial movement we used radio-transmitters to track 78 adult metamorphosed salamanders over 2 years. Sonoran tiger salamanders moved up to 1 km from the tank edge, and average distances moved of over 400 m were higher than most Ambystoma species. However, during the study period, none reached neighboring stock tanks. We found high mortality due to predation and desiccation. Individuals that dispersed to terrestrial habitat in summer survived longer than individuals that dispersed in spring. High mortality suggests terrestrial movement is exceptionally risky and may contribute to isolated subpopulations and elevated levels of inbreeding. Conservation actions that improve and maintain artificial aquatic habitats as well as increase connectivity may improve long-term management for pond-breeding amphibians in arid regions.

Dryland Watersheds in Flux: How Nitrogen Deposition and Changing Precipitation Regimes Shape Nitrogen Export

Dryland Watersheds in Flux: How Nitrogen Deposition and Changing Precipitation Regimes Shape Nitrogen Export

Forb stability, dwarf shrub stability and species asynchrony regulate ecosystem stability along an experimental precipitation gradient in a semi-arid desert grassland.

Precipitation pattern changes may affect plant biodiversity, which could impact ecosystem stability. However, the effects of changes in precipitation regime on ecosystem stability and their potential mechanisms are still unclear. We conducted a 3-year field manipulation experiment with five precipitation treatments (-40%, -20%, 0% (CK), +20% and +40% of ambient growing season precipitation) in a semi-arid desert grassland to examine the effects of precipitation alterations on functional group stability, species asynchrony, and diversity, and the underlying mchanisms of ecosystem stability using structural equation modelling. Alterations in precipitation had different effects on community biomass and functional group biomass. Moreover, ecosystem stability was mainly driven by forb stability (path coefficient = 0.79). Changes in precipitation had significant effects on soil dissolved inorganic N (P < 0.01) further affecting ecosystem stability through species asynchrony (path coefficient = 0.25). Dwarf shrubs had a stabilizing effect on ecosystem stability (path coefficient = 0.32), mainly via deep roots. Ecosystem stability tended to be lower in the -40% (4.72) and +40% (2.74) precipitation treatments. The common reduction in species asynchrony and stability of forb and dwarf shrub functional groups resulted in lower ecosystem stability under the -40% treatment. The lower stability under the +40% treatment might be ascribed to unimproved dwarf shrub stability. Higher dwarf shrub and forb stability contributed to higher ecosystem stability under normal precipitation changes (±20% treatments) and CK. Species diversity was not a crucial driver of ecosystem stability. Our results indicate that precipitation alteration can regulate ecosystem stability via functional group stability (e.g. forb stability, dwarf shrub stability) and species asynchrony in a semiarid desert grassland.

Divergent regulating modes of greenhouse gas emissions at different soil layers under altered precipitation regime

How soil microbial communities regulate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as precipitation events are “repackaged” from many small events to a few larger events has received significant attention. Previous studies have quantified the net fluxes of GHG across the soil/atmosphere interface; however, they have not investigated GHG fluxes in soil profiles under altered precipitation regimes. This study investigated the joint regulation of topsoil and subsoil microorganisms on GHG emissions under changes in precipitation regime in an alpine meadow. Severely altered precipitation regimes have led to changes in NO3–, DOC, and soil moisture among different soil layers, which can be attributed to a combination of substrate migration and changes in carbon and nitrogen mineralization rates. Topsoil microorganisms exhibit high sensitivity to severe changes in the precipitation regime, which can affect their biomass, microbial composition, and metabolic activities. In contrast, the activity of subsoil microorganisms remains relatively stable. This was likely due to the heterogeneity of dominant regulators across soil layers. Under the severely altered precipitation regime, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions significantly decreased by approximately 11.08%. This decrease was primarily due to a reduction in microbial respiration in the topsoil. The decrease in both topsoil and subsoil methane (CH4) uptake likely caused the inhibition of the CH4 sink from the surface (by approximately 11.60%). While a 1.75-fold increase in nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions under the severe changes in the precipitation regime might be primarily related to the increase in subsoil N2O emissions caused by the increasing abundance of subsoil denitrifiers, as well as the addition of subsoil nitrate content and soil moisture. This study revealed the divergent modes of microbial communities at different soil layers regulating GHG fluxes, which could guide the improvement of ecological models predicting GHG emissions in response to altered precipitation regimes.

Nitrogen addition does not alter symmetric responses of soil respiration to changing precipitation in a semi-arid grassland

Concurrent changing precipitation regimes and atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition can have profound influences on soil carbon (C) cycling. However, how N enrichment regulates the responses of soil C fluxes to increasing variability of precipitation remains elusive. As part of a field precipitation gradient experiment with nine levels of precipitation amounts (−60 %, −45 %, −30 %, −15 %, ambient precipitation, +15 %, +30 %, +45 %, and +60 %) and two levels of N addition (0 and 10 g N m−2 yr−1) in a semi-arid temperate steppe on the Mongolian Plateau, this work was conducted to investigate the responses of soil respiration to decreased and increased precipitation (DP and IP), N addition, and their possible interactions. Averaged over the three years from 2019 to 2021, DP suppressed soil respiration by 16.1 %, whereas IP stimulated it by 27.4 %. Nitrogen addition decreased soil respiration by 7.1 % primarily via reducing microbial biomass C. Soil respiration showed symmetric responses to DP and IP within all the four precipitation variabilities (i.e., 15 %, 30 %, 45 %, and 60 %) under ambient N. Nevertheless, N addition did not alter the symmetric responses of soil respiration to changing precipitation due to the comparable sensitivities of microbial biomass and root growth to DP and IP under the N addition treatment. These findings indicate that intensified precipitation variability does not change but N addition could alleviate soil C releases. The unchanged symmetric responses of soil respiration to precipitation variability under N addition imply that N deposition may not change the response pattern of soil C releases to predicted increases in precipitation variability in grasslands, facilitating the robust projections of ecosystem C cycling under future global change scenarios.

Body size induced changes in metabolic carbon of soil nematodes under N deposition and precipitation regime change in a temperate grassland

Abstract Background Global climate change has resulted in precipitation regimes exhibiting an increasing trend in rainfall intensity but a reduction in its frequency. Nitrogen (N) deposition is a crucial component of the global N cycling. Nematode body size is a trait that responds to climate change and is used as a standard trait-based indicator in soil community analysis. Variations in body size influence metabolic carbon (C). We examined the ways by which body size and metabolic C of nematodes respond to changing precipitation regimes and how N deposition regulates these responses by an 8-year manipulative experiment. Methods Nematode body size was indicated by the community-weighted mean (CWM) mass. We quantified C metabolism components of soil nematodes including production C, respiration C, and corresponding C use efficiency (CUE) under different precipitation intensities and N addition in a semi-arid steppe on the Mongolian Plateau. The Mantel test was used to determine the correlations between CWM, CUE and environmental factors. The partial least squares path modeling (PLS-PM) was conducted to quantify direct or indirect contributions among latent variables. Results We found that heavy precipitation intensity increased the CWM mass of total nematodes and omnivores-predators without N addition. N addition decreased CWM mass of bacterivores across all the precipitation intensity treatments. Stronger precipitation intensities might be favorable for nematode production and respiration C. Variations in the nematode CWM mass drove the CUE to change with N addition. Conclusions Our findings provide new insights into the mechanisms underlying nematode body size and C metabolism, and highlight that explorative studies, such as manipulative experiments, are needed to identify traits underlying size-related effects and to investigate how they affect CUE of nematodes. These efforts may increase our understanding of how changes in precipitation regimes and N deposition may alter soil nematode communities in grassland ecosystems.

Importance of forest stand structures for gross rainfall partitioning on China’s Loess Plateau

Large-scale ecological restoration in the arid and semi-arid Loess Plateau region of northern China is challenged by the intensifying water stress due to the changes in precipitation regimes. Although the importance of Gross Precipitation Partitioning (GRP) has been well recognized in forest hydrology, especially in dry areas, the processes are not understood because site- or region-specific factors complicate the accurate quantifications. This study integrates meta-analysis and field observation to compare patterns of GRP in forest stands that had different origins (plantations vs. native forests) and tree species (deciduous vs. evergreen) compositions. We aimed at quantifying the dominant biotic and abiotic factors controlling each of the GRP components to form empirical relationships between the GRP components and the influencing factors via the Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) model. We found a convergence in the GRP components among the examined stands that have diverse tree species and origins. Our results indicated that, unlike stem flow (SF) and canopy interception (Ic), the throughfall (TF) did not differ between natural and plantation stands. Meanwhile, from the perspective of species composition, the broadleaf forest stands had significantly higher SF rates than the coniferous stands. We found that stand structures exerted limited influence on TF, but significantly affected SF and Ic. We hypothesized that the residence time of the GRP components was important in explaining the matrix of influencing factors. The cumulative influences of stand structure factors played a more important role than species in most conditions. Based on the most influential factors (cumulative explanatory power > 70 %) selected from the BRT model, we successfully built a general formula to represent the GRP processes across the diverse forest stands in the Loess Plateau. Our study provides insights into the underlying mechanism of GRP for developing more realistic forest hydrological models. An improved understanding of GRP and better models are important for guiding large scale reforestation efforts that account for hydrological processes across stand species and origins.

Nitrogen addition regulates the effects of variation in precipitation patterns on plant biomass formation and allocation in a Leymus chinensis grassland of northeast China.

Global warming is predicted to change precipitation amount and reduce precipitation frequency, which may alter grassland primary productivity and biomass allocation, especially when interact with other global change factors, such as nitrogen deposition. The interactive effects of changes in precipitation amount and nitrogen addition on productivity and biomass allocation are extensively studied; however, how these effects may be regulated by the predicted reduction in precipitation frequency remain largely unknown. Using a mesocosm experiment, we investigated responses of primary productivity and biomass allocation to the manipulated changes in precipitation amount (PA: 150mm, 300mm, 450mm), precipitation frequency (PF: medium and low), and nitrogen addition (NA: 0 and 10 g N m-2 yr-1) in a Leymus chinensis grassland. We detected significant effects of the PA, PF and NA treatments on both aboveground biomass (AGB) and belowground biomass (BGB); but the interactive effects were only significant between the PA and NA on AGB. Both AGB and BGB increased with an increment in precipitation amount and nitrogen addition; the reduction in PF decreased AGB, but increased BGB. The reduced PF treatment induced an enhancement in the variation of soil moisture, which subsequently affected photosynthesis and biomass formation. Overall, there were mismatches in the above- and belowground biomass responses to changes in precipitation regime. Our results suggest the predicted changes in precipitation regime, including precipitation amount and frequency, is likely to alter primary productivity and biomass allocation, especially when interact with nitrogen deposition. Therefore, predicting the influence of global changes on grassland structure and functions requires the consideration of interactions among multiple global change factors.

Significantly wetter or drier future conditions for one to two thirds of the world’s population

Future projections of precipitation are uncertain, hampering effective climate adaptation strategies globally. Our understanding of changes across multiple climate model simulations under a warmer climate is limited by this lack of coherence across models. Here, we address this challenge introducing an approach that detects agreement in drier and wetter conditions by evaluating continuous 120-year time-series with trends, across 146 Global Climate Model (GCM) runs and two elevated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios. We show the hotspots of future drier and wetter conditions, including regions already experiencing water scarcity or excess. These patterns are projected to impact a significant portion of the global population, with approximately 3 billion people (38% of the world’s current population) affected under an intermediate emissions scenario and 5 billion people (66% of the world population) under a high emissions scenario by the century’s end (or 35-61% using projections of future population). We undertake a country- and state-level analysis quantifying the population exposed to significant changes in precipitation regimes, offering a robust framework for assessing multiple climate projections.

Greenhouse Gas Fluxes from the Epiphytic Lichens: Incubation Experiments

Because they are widespread and evolutionarily old, epiphytic lichens (ELs) play an important role in global forest ecosystems. ELs are abundant in Siberian forest ecosystems, which are highly vulnerable to climate change; thus, ELs can be important contributors to the carbon (C) cycle. This study aims to address the unknown role of tree-inhabiting ELs in the C cycle of forest ecosystems in Central Siberia, where the EL biomass ranges from 492 to 3200 kg per ha. The main finding of this study is that ELs in a hydrated state can generate CH4 for an extended period (at least two weeks), as determined by an incubation method. At the same EL moisture level, EL CO2 fluxes are species-specific. The pattern of the release or uptake of GHGs by ELs may also alter due to climate change, e.g., changes in precipitation regimes (such as more frequent extreme rainfalls and droughts). Therefore, the EL contribution to the C cycle in forest ecosystems should be assessed, e.g., via the modeling of C cycling. Furthermore, specific factors, such as the EL exposure on the phorophyte stem, the EL biodiversity, and the day/night GHG fluxes, should be considered for a more concise assessment of ELs’ contribution to the C cycle of forest ecosystems and their response to ongoing and projected climate change.

Hydric physiology and ecology of a federally endangered desert lizard.

Animals can respond to extreme climates by behaviourally avoiding it or by physiologically coping with it. We understand behavioural and physiological thermoregulation, but water balance has largely been neglected. Climate change includes both global warming and changes in precipitation regimes, so improving our understanding of organismal water balance is increasingly urgent. We assessed the hydric physiology of US federally endangered blunt-nosed leopard lizards (Gambelia sila) by measuring cutaneous evaporative water loss (CEWL), plasma osmolality and body condition. Measurements were taken throughout their active season, the short period of year when these lizards can be found aboveground. Compared to a more mesic species, G. sila had low CEWL which is potentially desert-adaptive, and high plasma osmolality that could be indicative of dehydration. We hypothesized that throughout the G. sila active season, as their habitat got hotter and drier, G. sila would become more dehydrated and watertight. Instead, CEWL and plasma osmolality showed minimal change for females and non-linear change for males, which we hypothesize is connected to sex-specific reproductive behaviours and changes in food availability. We also measured thermoregulation and microhabitat use, expecting that more dehydrated lizards would have lower body temperature, poorer thermoregulatory accuracy and spend less time aboveground. However, we found no effect of CEWL, plasma osmolality or body condition on these thermal and behavioural metrics. Finally, G. sila spends considerable time belowground in burrows, and burrows may serve not only as essential thermal refugia but also hydric refugia.

Effects of global and climate change on the freshwater-seawater interface movement in a Mediterranean karst aquifer of Mallorca Island

Karst aquifers are globally prized freshwater sources, posing a significant preservation challenge. These aquifers typically exhibit dual or even triple porosities, encompassing matrix, fractures-fissures and conduits, rendering them highly responsive to variations in chemical characteristics and hydraulic head. In coastal regions, these aquifers often possess extensive subsurface conduit networks intricately linked to the rock matrix, facilitating groundwater discharge into the sea. Therefore, they display acute sensitivity to seawater intrusion, swiftly reacting to changes in precipitation and pumping regimes. This makes them exceptionally vulnerable to short-term meteorological fluctuations and long-term climate change. Their high heterogeneity leads to uneven penetration of the freshwater-seawater interface, causing rapid seawater intrusion inland over significant distances. The Mediterranean region, characterized by water deficit and water stress, faces strong impacts from climate change, featuring a warming atmospheric trend exceeding the global average, along with diminished rainfall exacerbating water scarcity. Increasing water demands for agriculture, urban development, and the growing tourism industry, because of global change, are worsening water stress. Our primary research objectives were analyzing the environmental consequences of global and climate change on seawater intrusion in Mediterranean coastal karst aquifers, with a focus on the role of the double-flow model, thus contributing to the understanding of the processes involved. To achieve this, we selected a study region on Mallorca Island in the western Mediterranean, where a karst aquifer system discharges into the sea. We employed various study methods, notably hydrochemical techniques and multi-isotopic analysis, encompassing the examination of 2H and 18O isotopes in water, 87Sr/86Sr ratio, Sr and B concentrations, and δ11B in water. A key finding is the rebound effect, wherein aquifers recontaminate due to solute molecular back-diffusion following cessation of extractions and the retreat of marine intrusion, providing insight into the impact of climate and global change on Mediterranean karst aquifers.

Recent Climate Change in the Republic of Srpska and Bosnia and Herzegovina

The paper gives an overview of the observed climate change in the Republic of Srpska and Bosnia and Herzegovina; primarily the changes in air temperature and precipitation regime. In the period 1961‒2015 the positive trends of mean, maximum and minimum annual and seasonal air temperatures were determined, which were most pronounced in the summer season, whereas in the autumn season there is only a slight upward trend of temperatures. Warming is most pronounced in the northern part of the territory, whereas the increase is much lower in the higher parts of the Herzegovina region. Unlike air temperature, precipitation trends are, both seasonally and regionally, very variable and of different signs (positive and negative), but mostly insignificant. However, in some areas, the interannual variability of precipitation and the frequency of extreme precipitation have increased. In addition, the paper presents the results of research on possible climate change (based on expected changes in air temperature and precipitation) by the end of the 21st century in the Republic of Srpska and Bosnia and Herzegovina according to the climate scenario RCP8.5. The results indicate more pronounced climate change related to increasing annual temperatures up to 5 °C and reducing annual precipitation by up to 30%, whereas the deficit in the summer season (June, July and August) could go up to 40% by the end of the 21st century. Such changes point to the serious problem of drought and water scarcity and the need for more significant integration of climate change issues into planning and strategic documents.

Spatiotemporal variability of precipitation concentration in Pakistan

AbstractPrecipitation is a meteorological variable that plays a vital role in determining water resources and managing water risks. The intensity and frequency of precipitation extremes have increased in recent years; however, the changes in precipitation regimes across Pakistan remain unclear. This study analysed spatial and temporal changes in the precipitation concentration index (PCI) and concentration index (CI) from 100 meteorological stations across Pakistan from 1981 to 2017. Using innovative trend analysis (ITA) and Pettitt's test, we detected trends and change points in the annual and wet season PCI and CI. Additionally, we examined the relationship between PCI/CI values and latitude and altitude. The results revealed that the CI and PCI ranged between 0.48–0.78 and 10–55, respectively, with higher values being more prevalent in the dry and hot zones of the country. The study established a linear relationship between PCI/CI values, latitude and altitude, with higher values at lower altitudes and a decrease in values from south to north. Most stations presented a significant positive ITA trend for PCI and CI from 1981 to 2017, with a change between 1985 and 1995, indicating an overall increase in heavy precipitation events in the area. These findings are crucial for disaster preparedness, water resource planning, the mitigation of drought and flood risks, and conservation efforts.

Climbing through Climate Change in the Canadian Rockies: Guides’ Experiences of Route Transformation on Mt. Athabasca

Mountain guides play an important role in the provision of nature-based tourism activities, such as mountaineering, in alpine environments around the world. However, these locales are uniquely sensitive to climate change, and despite extensive documentation of bio-geophysical changes, there are few studies evaluating the impacts of these changes on mountaineering routes and the livelihood of mountain guides. This constrains adaptation planning and limits awareness of potential loss and damage in the mountain tourism sector. In response, our study explored mountain guides’ lived experiences of working on Mt. Athabasca in Jasper National Park, Canada, to reveal the effects of climate change on mountaineering routes and implications for the mountain guiding community. To do this, we used a mixed methods approach that combined spatio-temporal trend analysis, repeat photography, and semi-structured interviews with mountain guides. We found that rising temperatures and changing precipitation regimes in the Mt. Athabasca area are driving glacial retreat and loss of semi-permanent snow and ice, which is impacting climbing conditions and objective hazards on mountaineering and guiding routes. Guides’ experiences of these changes varied according to socio-economic conditions (e.g., financial security, livelihood flexibility), with late-career guides tending to experience loss of guiding opportunities and early-career guides facing increased pressure to provide services in more challenging conditions. Our findings offer novel insights that identify salient issues and bolster support for actions in response to the concerns of the mountain guide community. This study also underscores the need for further research, as the underlying issues are likely present in mountaineering destinations globally.

Water rather than nitrogen availability predominantly modulates soil microbial beta-diversity and co-occurrence networks in a secondary forest

Atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition and changing precipitation regimes greatly affect the structure and functions of terrestrial ecosystems. However, their impacts on the diversity and assembly of soil microbial communities including bacteria, fungi and protists, remain largely unclear. As part of a six-year field experiment in a secondary forest in a warm temperate and subtropical climate transitional zone in China, we aimed to investigate the responses of soil microbial communities to N addition, increased and decreased precipitation. The results showed that N addition had no effect on soil microbial α- or β-diversity, but reduced the complexity of microbial network. Neither increased nor decreased precipitation influenced soil microbial α-diversity, but decreased precipitation rather than increased precipitation elevated bacterial and protistan community dissimilarities (β-diversity), which could have been largely attributed to species replacement processes through reducing soil water availability. In addition, decreased precipitation weakened microbial complexity and stability, but enhanced the node proportion of protists in the co-occurrence network. Our observations suggest the asymmetric responses of soil microbial β-diversity to increased and decreased precipitation, and underscore that water rather than N availability, especially drought condition, plays a predominant role in modulating soil microbial β-diversity. Moreover, the findings imply that global change can strengthen the importance of soil protists and then reshape microbial assembly in forests.

The owls are coming: positive effects of climate change in Northern ecosystems depend on grassland protection

Climate-driven migrations towards Northern latitudes are expected to reorganize biotic communities as result of range shift dynamics. However, the establishment of healthy populations of migrating species depends on habitat provision by receptor landscapes. Here, we ask if the rising temperatures and changes in precipitation regimes in western North America are likely to lead to an expansion of warm and dry-affiliated species, using the burrowing owl (Athene cunicularia) as a study case. This migratory species depends on grassland habitats for nesting and breeding, so we test for the effect of the lack of grasslands on the occupancy of future suitable environments. To estimate the burrowing owl's potential distribution, we used ecological niche models (ENMs) calibrated with climate and soil information and projected onto future scenarios of climate change (low versus high greenhouse gas emission). Then, we simulated environmental sorting using habitat filter masks derived from information on habitat use and forecasts of future land use change, focusing on grasslands as nesting and breeding habitat. We found that the burrowing owl could expand its geographic distribution by 3 to 10-fold towards Northern latitudes, especially under high-emission scenarios of climate change. However, nearly half of the suitable environments (up to 53,593 km2 of locations with suitable climate and soil) might not be covered by grasslands, due to conversion to agriculture and other human land uses which may prevent the establishment of breeding populations. Our results shed light on the pervasive effects of neglecting the preservation of grasslands across western North America, which could provide critically needed habitat for migrating species from lower latitudes. Enhancing and facilitating the colonization of novel species is a shift in the static paradigm of biodiversity conservation and a proactive measure for climate change adaptation.